Translation note: This article was translated with the assistance of AI.
The global aircraft fleet is set to grow considerably over the next two decades, driving demand across the aviation aftermarket. Airbus expects the worldwide market for MRO and other aviation services to double in value by 2045.
Global MRO and Aviation Services Market to Exceed $420 Billion
According to Airbus forecasts, the global fleet of passenger aircraft with at least 100 seats is expected to nearly double by 2045, growing from approximately 23,300 to more than 45,500 aircraft. This expansion is likely to increase demand for maintenance, repair, spare parts, and related services.
In its latest Global Services Forecast, the European aircraft manufacturer projects that the worldwide aviation services market will grow from $209 billion in 2026 to more than $420 billion annually by 2045. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%.
Aviation Industry to Require 2.44 Million New Personnel
The projected growth will also create substantial demand for skilled personnel. Airbus estimates that the aviation industry will need 730,000 new maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots, and 1.05 million cabin crew members over the next two decades, bringing the total to approximately 2.44 million people.
These figures account for both workforce expansion driven by aviation growth and the replacement of employees leaving the industry.
Engine and Component Maintenance to Remain the Largest Market Segment
According to Airbus, off-wing maintenance of engines and components will continue to account for the largest share of the global aviation services market. The manufacturer expects this segment to reach an annual market value of $217 billion by 2045, representing average annual growth of 3.7%. Already in 2026, off-wing maintenance accounts for $109 billion, more than half of the entire services market.
Maintenance performed on aircraft is also expected to expand. Airbus projects that on-wing maintenance, including routine maintenance activities and extensive structural inspections, will reach $36 billion in 2045. Maintenance operations support, encompassing spare parts supply and technical services, is forecast to account for another $104 billion.
Digital Aviation Services Expected to Grow Fastest
Airbus anticipates particularly strong growth in digital services and connectivity solutions. The market is expected to expand from approximately $10 billion today to $27 billion annually by 2045. With a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.3%, this segment is set to outpace all other service categories covered by the forecast.
Increasing aircraft connectivity and the use of digital technologies in maintenance will play an important role. Airbus highlights digital twins, condition-based maintenance, and predictive maintenance methods as key developments. By analyzing operational and condition-monitoring data, maintenance activities could be planned more precisely while reducing material costs.
Airbus estimates that combining maintenance with digital solutions could generate savings of up to $8 billion by 2045.
Growing Demand for Aircraft Conversions and Upgrades
Beyond conventional maintenance, Airbus expects increasing demand for aircraft modifications and upgrades. The annual market value of this segment is projected to reach $21 billion by 2045. Activities include cabin and system upgrades, modifications associated with aircraft lease transitions, and passenger-to-freighter conversions.
The retirement of older aircraft is creating another market opportunity. Airbus expects more than 18,400 aircraft to be retired between 2026 and 2045, increasing the importance of reusing previously operated, airworthy components. For this used serviceable material (USM) market, Airbus forecasts cumulative demand of $60 billion over the entire period.
South Asia Expected to Record Strongest Market Growth
Airbus expects considerable regional differences in the development of aviation services markets. South Asia is projected to record the highest compound annual growth rate at 8.4%, with annual market demand increasing from approximately $6 billion to $28 billion by 2045.
In Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Airbus forecasts growth from $52 billion to $88 billion. North America is expected to remain one of the major markets for aviation services, reaching $75 billion annually by 2045. China is projected to reach $78 billion.
Image credit: © Airbus SAU 2025 / Vicente Ontoso – Mango Producciones