Translation note: This article was translated with the assistance of AI.
Boeing has published a positive outlook for the global air cargo market, shortly after confirming that supplier Vaero had resumed deliveries of wing components for the 777F following a months-long legal dispute. However, the production disruptions caused by the delivery halt have yet to be fully resolved.
The latest Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2026–2045 projects that global air cargo traffic will double over the next 20 years. Over that period, the worldwide freighter fleet is forecast to expand from 2,395 aircraft today to 4,010 by 2045, an increase of 67 percent.
Nearly 3,000 New and Converted Freighters Needed
Boeing puts demand for new and converted freighters at 2,930 aircraft by 2045 to support the projected expansion and renew aging fleets. About 55 percent of these aircraft will add cargo capacity; the other 45 percent will take the place of older, less efficient aircraft.
Converted passenger aircraft are forecast to meet a large portion of that demand. Passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions will supply roughly two-thirds of the freighters needed, with factory-built freighters making up the remaining one-third. The forecast suggests continuing opportunities for long-term growth among businesses that specialize in passenger aircraft conversions.
E-Commerce and AI Hardware Drive Air Cargo Growth
Boeing identifies expanding e-commerce, shifts in the location and diversification of global supply chains, and rising volumes of high-value, time-sensitive shipments as major contributors to the projected growth. Such shipments include technology hardware for artificial intelligence applications. Citing figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Boeing says more than 70 percent of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025.
Measured in freight tonne-kilometers, global air cargo traffic is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent over the next two decades. Boeing anticipates especially rapid expansion in trade flows involving Asia, which are forecast to represent approximately 60 percent of the global air cargo market.